For the last month or so I have been having the same outcome. Do really well then take what some would call a severe beat or a cooler. I knew there was a lesson intended and will always know its divine in origin.
The hand:
Table is 2-5 pretty loose passive. Just had to make a tough laydown. UTG+1 look down at 97o. I have been limping these types of hands out of position all night and getting pot odds to play against weaker players.
I limp so do 4 others late pos raises to 25 he's a lp I have played in the past. TP utg calls I call so do 2 others
130 in pot preflop
Flop:
7s 7h. 3d
Utg bets out 50 which makes me a little nervous still he could have 8s. I call wanting the lp to raise if he has an overpair. Lp goes all in for 202 folded to tp utg insta call I now reason he must have a 7 either 78 76 A7 maybe 33. Guess ill find out on turn call
Turn:
Kh
Utg tp goes allin I look at the pot 130+606+230 1066 and it costs me 230 all in to call 4.5 to 1 I feel the pot odds are enough and call
River:
Jd
Showdown:
Me 97
Tp 33
Lp AA
I lose and leave spend the whole drive calculating the odds. Basically if I put him on 33 I have 3 9s 1 7 3 Ks 7 outs roughly 15% which is 5.5 to 1 which makes my call correct if I put him on either 78 76 or A7 I have 3 9s 3 3s 2 Ks to chop 220 or win entire pot still worth it. SO its not a bad call on turn.
Lesson:
So I racked my brain how could I lay this down I can't on turn I'm too comitted and there it is the answer to my problem.
The time to lay this hand down was on the flop not the turn. There are only 5 possible hands I can see tp holding 78 76 A7 33 AA. This is why I missed the laydown, I am beating 3 of them and my thought was find out on turn
Plan:
Start looking at bet size compared to stack size get in habit of always knowing physically cut it out in live play and know ratio online
